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Updated: May 15, 2026
09:07
Experimental Research Examining How People Can Cope with Uncertainty Through Soft Haptic Sensations
Published on: September 16, 2015
Sources of uncertainty in intuitive physics.
1Department of Psychology, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0109, USA. k2smith@ucsd.edu
Topics in Cognitive Science
|January 22, 2013
Summary
People predict object motion using physics but with uncertainty. This study reveals that human trajectory predictions incorporate noisy dynamics and outcome expectations to manage physical model uncertainty.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive science
- Physics perception
- Human predictive modeling
Background:
- Human object interaction prediction aligns with Newtonian physics but includes uncertainty.
- Sources of this predictive uncertainty remain largely unexamined.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify perceptual noise in initial conditions and model stochasticity in human physics predictions.
- To investigate how humans manage uncertainty in predicting object trajectories.
Main Methods:
- Participants predicted object trajectories through occluded motion and bounces.
- Human predictions were compared against an ideal observer model.
- Perceptual noise and physical model stochasticity were measured.
Main Results:
- Human judgments deviate from simple heuristics, requiring noisy dynamics for accurate modeling.
- Predictions show a bias consistent with prior expectations about object destinations.
- Outcome expectations compensate for uncertainty in internal physical models.
Conclusions:
- Human physics prediction is not purely heuristic but incorporates noisy dynamics.
- Prior outcome expectations play a crucial role in refining predictions under uncertainty.
- Understanding these uncertainties is key to modeling intuitive physics.
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