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Durable resistance to crop pathogens: an epidemiological framework to predict risk under uncertainty
Giovanni Lo Iacono1, Frank van den Bosch, Chris A Gilligan
1Department of Veterinary Medicine, Disease Dynamics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom. gl334@cam.ac.uk
Plos Computational Biology
|January 24, 2013
Summary
Stochastic fluctuations in plant pathogen epidemics can enhance pathogen extinction, particularly at higher resistant crop ratios. This finding suggests new disease control strategies leveraging natural environmental variability.
Area of Science:
- Plant pathology
- Epidemiology
- Evolutionary biology
Background:
- Durability of crop resistance to plant pathogens is crucial for virulence management.
- The impact of demographic and environmental stochasticity on pathogen evolution and resistance durability remains understudied.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how random fluctuations affect epidemic dynamics, pathogen evolution, and resistance durability.
- To test if demographic stochasticity alters the relationship between cropping ratio and resistance durability.
- To examine the interaction between intrinsic demographic fluctuations and external stochasticity on resistance durability.
Main Methods:
- Formulation of a stochastic epidemiological model using the Kramer-Moyal expansion of the Master Equation.
- Analysis of two hypotheses concerning cropping ratio effects and external stochasticity interactions.
Main Results:
- Contrary to deterministic models, demographic stochasticity shows that resistance durability is dependent on the cropping ratio.
- Large stochastic fluctuations generally enhance pathogen extinction, especially at higher cropping ratios.
- Stochastic resonance was observed, where external periodic perturbations at specific frequencies amplified pathogen extinction.
Conclusions:
- Stochasticity plays a significant role in the evolution of pathogen resistance and epidemic dynamics.
- Disease control strategies could exploit natural sources of stochasticity, such as environmental variations or management practices.
- Optimizing cropping ratios in conjunction with managing external stochasticity may enhance resistance durability.
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