Accuracy of predicting the duration of a surgical operation

The ability to predict how long a particular operation will take is important for maintaining operating room efficiency. The purpose of this study was to determine how accurate oral and maxillofacial surgeons (OMSs) can be in making this determination.

Three experienced OMSs predicted their operating times for various operations; these predictions were compared with the actual times. The cases were then grouped into those with accurate predictions and those with overestimated and underestimated times, and the operative reports were reviewed for possible operation trends or other contributing factors.

In the 100 cases analyzed, the surgeons correctly estimated operating times 26% of the time, overestimated 42% of the time, and underestimated 32% of the time. In the 42 overestimated times, 10 cases involved multiple tooth extractions or removal of impacted third molars, and 8 cases involved orthognathic surgery. In the 32 underestimated cases, 7 involved orthognathic surgery and 8 involved the open reduction of fractures. The 26 accurately estimated cases involved 7 cases of multiple tooth extractions or impacted third molar removal and 5 cases of arthroscopic temporomandibular joint lysis and lavage.

Although operating times need to be used for scheduling purposes, they can be highly unpredictable. Surgeons need to constantly analyze their predictions for confounding factors in order to improve their accuracy.