Flexible marginalized models for bivariate longitudinal ordinal data

Random effects models are commonly used to analyze longitudinal categorical data. Marginalized random effects models are a class of models that permit direct estimation of marginal mean parameters and characterize serial correlation for longitudinal categorical data via random effects (Heagerty, 1999). Marginally specified logistic-normal models for longitudinal binary data. Biometrics 55, 688-698; Lee and Daniels, 2008. Marginalized models for longitudinal ordinal data with application to quality of life studies. Statistics in Medicine 27, 4359-4380). In this paper, we propose a Kronecker product (KP) covariance structure to capture the correlation between processes at a given time and the correlation within a process over time (serial correlation) for bivariate longitudinal ordinal data. For the latter, we consider a more general class of models than standard (first-order) autoregressive correlation models, by re-parameterizing the correlation matrix using partial autocorrelations (Daniels and Pourahmadi, 2009). Modeling covariance matrices via partial autocorrelations. Journal of Multivariate Analysis 100, 2352-2363). We assess the reasonableness of the KP structure with a score test. A maximum marginal likelihood estimation method is proposed utilizing a quasi-Newton algorithm with quasi-Monte Carlo integration of the random effects. We examine the effects of demographic factors on metabolic syndrome and C-reactive protein using the proposed models.