Predicting asthma outcomes in commercially insured and Medicaid populations?

To assess the predictive ability of the ratio of controller-to-total asthma medication in commercially insured and Medicaid patients.

Retrospective cohort.

Medical and pharmacy claims were used to identify asthma patients between 2004 and 2006. Ratios were computed during 3-, 6-, and 12-month assessment periods and asthma exacerbations were assessed during a subsequent 12-month follow-up period. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses and logistic regression were used to select optimal ratio number, assessment time period, and incremental ratio analysis.

The ratio significantly predicted future asthma exacerbations. An optimal value of >0.7 was identified in pediatric and adult Medicaid patients with a shorter assessment period in adults (3 months) than in children (6 months). In commercially insured patients, an optimal value of >0.5 during a 6-month assessment period was identified for children and adults. In commercially insured patients, a 0.1-unit increase in the ratio below the 0.5 value resulted in a 72% (odds ratio [OR] 0.28; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.13-0.57) and 80% (OR 0.20; 95% CI 0.12-0.33) risk reduction among pediatric and adult patients, respectively. Similarly, a 0.1-unit increase in the ratio below the 0.7 optimal value in the Medicaid population resulted in significant risk reduction in the pediatric (OR 0.65; 95% CI 0.43-0.97) but not the adult cohort.

The ratio is a significant predictive risk marker in commercially insured and Medicaid asthma populations. Incremental risk reductions can be realized by unit increases in the ratio up to the identified optimal value.