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Updated: May 14, 2026
12:44
Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
Current and future land use around a nationwide protected area network
Christopher M Hamilton1, Sebastian Martinuzzi, Andrew J Plantinga
1Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America. cmhamilton2@wisc.edu
Plos One
|February 6, 2013
Summary
Land use change threatens protected areas. Predicting future changes around National Wildlife Refuges shows significant urban growth, impacting conservation efforts.
Area of Science:
- Conservation Science
- Environmental Planning
- Biodiversity Management
Background:
- Land-use change near protected areas diminishes their effective size and conservation capacity.
- Altered ecological processes and restricted species movement due to land-use change pose significant threats to biodiversity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To predict future land-use change surrounding U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuges.
- To inform conservation planning for a national network of protected lands by evaluating policy impacts.
Main Methods:
- Evaluated three economic policy scenarios to predict land-use changes by 2051.
- Modeled shifts in forest/range, crop/pasture, and urban land-use classes.
- Analyzed regional variations in land-use change across USFWS administrative regions.
Main Results:
- Projected increase in forest/range (1.9%–4.7%), significant decrease in crop/pasture (15.2%–23.1%), and substantial urban land increase (28.5%–57.0%).
- Greatest land-use change anticipated in the Upper Midwest (approx. 30%), Southeastern, and Northeastern US (25%).
- Policy scenarios showed similar land-use change, except for a 'restricted-urban-growth' scenario, indicating limited impact of national policies.
Conclusions:
- National policies may have limited influence on broad land-use change patterns.
- Understanding regional land-use dynamics is crucial for effective management of protected lands.
- Conservation planning requires tailored strategies that account for localized land-use trends.
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