Lagged effect of diurnal temperature range on mortality in a subtropical megacity of China

Many studies have found extreme temperature can increase the risk of mortality. However, it is not clear whether extreme diurnal temperature range (DTR) is associated with daily disease-specific mortality, and how season might modify any association.

To better understand the acute effect of DTR on mortality and identify whether season is a modifier of the DTR effect.

The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was applied to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of DTR on deaths (non-accidental mortality (NAD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease (RD) and cerebrovascular disease (CBD)) in the full year, the cold season and the warm season.

A non-linear relationship was consistently found between extreme DTR and mortality. Immediate effects of extreme low DTR on all types of mortality were stronger than those of extreme high DTR in the full year. The cumulative effects of extreme DTRs increased with the increment of lag days for all types of mortality in cold season, and they were greater for extreme high DTRs than those of extreme low DTRs. In hot season, the cumulative effects for extreme low DTRs increased with the increment of lag days, but for extreme high DTR they reached maxima at a lag of 13 days for all types of mortality except for CBD(at lag6 days), and then decreased.

Our findings suggest that extreme DTR is an independent risk factor of daily mortality, and season is a modifier of the association of DTR with daily mortality.