ASCORE: an up-to-date cardiovascular risk score for hypertensive patients reflecting contemporary clinical practice

D Prieto-Merino1, J Dobson, A K Gupta

  • 1Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. david.prieto@lshtm.ac.uk

Insights

Existing cardiovascular risk scores may overestimate risk in hypertensive patients on modern treatments. A new score, ASCORE, developed from contemporary data, offers a more accurate prediction of 5-year cardiovascular events.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology
  • Preventive Medicine
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Numerous cardiovascular (CV) risk scores exist but may lack accuracy for contemporary patients.
  • Hypertensive patients now benefit from advanced treatments and management strategies, necessitating updated risk prediction tools.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a new risk score (ASCORE) for predicting the 5-year risk of a first CV event in hypertensive patients.
  • To compare the performance of the new risk score against existing scores like the Framingham risk score.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from 15,955 hypertensive patients without prior CV disease from the Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-BPLA.
  • Employed Cox proportional hazard models to identify baseline predictors for the risk equation.
  • Developed a comprehensive model (ASCORE) and a simplified version (ASCORE-S) excluding laboratory variables.

Main Results:

  • The ASCORE model, incorporating age, sex, smoking, diabetes, BP treatment, systolic BP, cholesterol, glucose, and creatinine, demonstrated strong internal validity.
  • A simplified ASCORE-S model was also derived, showing good predictive performance.
  • The Framingham risk score significantly overpredicted the observed 5-year CV risk in this cohort.

Conclusions:

  • Risk scores based on older data may overestimate CV risk in patients receiving current blood pressure treatments.
  • Updated risk scores, like ASCORE, are essential for accurate CV risk assessment in contemporary hypertensive populations.
  • User-friendly integer score tables are provided for practical clinical application.

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