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ASCORE: an up-to-date cardiovascular risk score for hypertensive patients reflecting contemporary clinical practice
D Prieto-Merino1, J Dobson, A K Gupta
1Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. david.prieto@lshtm.ac.uk
Insights
Existing cardiovascular risk scores may overestimate risk in hypertensive patients on modern treatments. A new score, ASCORE, developed from contemporary data, offers a more accurate prediction of 5-year cardiovascular events.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Preventive Medicine
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Numerous cardiovascular (CV) risk scores exist but may lack accuracy for contemporary patients.
- Hypertensive patients now benefit from advanced treatments and management strategies, necessitating updated risk prediction tools.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a new risk score (ASCORE) for predicting the 5-year risk of a first CV event in hypertensive patients.
- To compare the performance of the new risk score against existing scores like the Framingham risk score.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from 15,955 hypertensive patients without prior CV disease from the Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-BPLA.
- Employed Cox proportional hazard models to identify baseline predictors for the risk equation.
- Developed a comprehensive model (ASCORE) and a simplified version (ASCORE-S) excluding laboratory variables.
Main Results:
- The ASCORE model, incorporating age, sex, smoking, diabetes, BP treatment, systolic BP, cholesterol, glucose, and creatinine, demonstrated strong internal validity.
- A simplified ASCORE-S model was also derived, showing good predictive performance.
- The Framingham risk score significantly overpredicted the observed 5-year CV risk in this cohort.
Conclusions:
- Risk scores based on older data may overestimate CV risk in patients receiving current blood pressure treatments.
- Updated risk scores, like ASCORE, are essential for accurate CV risk assessment in contemporary hypertensive populations.
- User-friendly integer score tables are provided for practical clinical application.
Abstract:
A number of risk scores already exist to predict cardiovascular (CV) events. However, scores developed with data collected some time ago might not accurately predict the CV risk of contemporary hypertensive patients that benefit from more modern treatments and management. Using data from the randomised clinical trial Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-BPLA, with 15 955 hypertensive patients without previous CV disease receiving contemporary preventive CV management, we developed a new risk score predicting the 5-year risk of a first CV event (CV death, myocardial infarction or stroke). Cox proportional hazard models were used to develop a risk equation from baseline predictors. The final risk model (ASCORE) included age, sex, smoking, diabetes, previous blood pressure (BP) treatment, systolic BP, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, fasting glucose and creatinine baseline variables. A simplified model (ASCORE-S) excluding laboratory variables was also derived. Both models showed very good internal validity. User-friendly integer score tables are reported for both models. Applying the latest Framingham risk score to our data significantly overpredicted the observed 5-year risk of the composite CV outcome. We conclude that risk scores derived using older databases (such as Framingham) may overestimate the CV risk of patients receiving current BP treatments; therefore, 'updated' risk scores are needed for current patients.
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