Emergency hospital admissions for the elderly: insights from the Devon Predictive Model

Area of Science:

• Gerontology
• Public Health
• Healthcare Analytics

Background:

• The United Kingdom faces a rapidly expanding elderly demographic, with individuals aged 85 and over projected to double by 2030.
• Concurrently, there is a notable increase in emergency hospital admissions across the UK.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a predictive model for emergency hospital admissions.
• To identify key risk factors, with a focus on the elderly population, influencing emergency admissions.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of all emergency admissions for the registered population in Devon.
• Development of the Devon Predictive Model (DPM) using local data to forecast admissions.
• Comparison of the DPM against the Combined Predictive Model (CPM) across five risk categories.

Main Results:

• The Devon population comprised 761,652 registered individuals with 65,892 emergency admissions in 2010/2011.
• The DPM, incorporating 89 variables including local factors, demonstrated superior predictive value compared to the CPM.
• Age groups 85-89, 90-94, and 95 and over were among the most powerful predictors; individuals aged 85 and over experienced 420 admissions per thousand registered.

Conclusions:

• Age, particularly the 85 and over cohort, is a significantly undervalued predictor of emergency hospital admissions.
• The DPM shows promise for improving the prediction of emergency admissions in the elderly population.