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The network level reproduction number for infectious diseases with both vertical and horizontal transmission
1Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Kansas State University, KS 66506, USA. lxue@ksu.edu
Abstract:
A wide range of infectious diseases are both vertically and horizontally transmitted. Such diseases are spatially transmitted via multiple species in heterogeneous environments, typically described by complex meta-population models. The reproduction number, R0, is a critical metric predicting whether the disease can invade the meta-population system. This paper presents the reproduction number for a generic disease vertically and horizontally transmitted among multiple species in heterogeneous networks, where nodes are locations, and links reflect outgoing or incoming movement flows. The metapopulation model for vertically and horizontally transmitted diseases is gradually formulated from two species, two-node network models. We derived an explicit expression of R0, which is the spectral radius of a matrix reduced in size with respect to the original next generation matrix. The reproduction number is shown to be a function of vertical and horizontal transmission parameters, and the lower bound is the reproduction number for horizontal transmission. As an application, the reproduction number and its bounds for the Rift Valley fever zoonosis, where livestock, mosquitoes, and humans are the involved species are derived. By computing the reproduction number for different scenarios through numerical simulations, we found the reproduction number is affected by livestock movement rates only when parameters are heterogeneous across nodes. To summarize, our study contributes the reproduction number for vertically and horizontally transmitted diseases in heterogeneous networks. This explicit expression is easily adaptable to specific infectious diseases, affording insights into disease evolution.
Insights
This study provides a new formula for the basic reproduction number (R0) of infectious diseases transmitted both vertically and horizontally across multiple species in complex networks. This metric helps predict disease spread in diverse environments.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Network Science
Background:
- Infectious diseases spread through vertical and horizontal transmission, often involving multiple species in complex environments.
- Metapopulation models are used to understand disease dynamics in spatially structured populations.
- The basic reproduction number (R0) is crucial for predicting disease invasion and spread.
Purpose of the Study:
- To derive an explicit expression for the basic reproduction number (R0) for diseases with both vertical and horizontal transmission in heterogeneous networks.
- To analyze the factors influencing R0 in multi-species, multi-node systems.
- To apply the derived R0 to a relevant zoonotic disease, Rift Valley fever.
Main Methods:
- Development of a metapopulation model, starting from simple two-species, two-node networks.
- Derivation of R0 as the spectral radius of a reduced next-generation matrix.
- Numerical simulations to explore R0 under varying parameters and network structures.
Main Results:
- An explicit formula for R0 was derived, dependent on vertical and horizontal transmission parameters.
- The derived R0 has a lower bound equal to the R0 for horizontal transmission alone.
- Rift Valley fever R0 was calculated, showing livestock movement impacts spread only in heterogeneous networks.
Conclusions:
- The study provides a versatile R0 calculation for diseases with mixed transmission routes in complex networks.
- The derived R0 is adaptable for specific diseases, offering insights into their evolutionary dynamics.
- Understanding R0 in heterogeneous networks is vital for predicting and managing infectious disease spread.
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