Validity of laboratory-based surveillance for detection of respiratory syncytial virus seasons

In this study, we validated the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's use of a 10% threshold of median proportion of positive laboratory tests (median proportion positive (MPP)) to identify respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) seasons against a standard based on hospitalization claims. Medicaid fee-for-service recipients under 2 years of age from California, Florida, Illinois, and Texas (1999-2004), continuously eligible since birth, were categorized for each week as high-risk or low-risk with regard to RSV-related hospitalization based on medical and pharmacy claims data and birth certificates. Weeks were categorized as on-season if the RSV hospitalization incidence rate in high-risk children exceeded the seasonal peak of the incidence rate in low-risk children. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to measure the ability of MPP to discriminate between on-season and off-season weeks as determined from hospitalization data. Areas under the ROC curve ranged from 0.88 (95% confidence interval: 0.83, 0.92) in Illinois to 0.96 (95% confidence interval: 0.94, 0.98) in California. Requiring at least 5 positive tests in addition to the 10% MPP threshold optimized accuracy, as indicated by minimized root mean square errors. The 10% MPP with the added requirement of at least 5 positive tests is a valid method for identifying clinically significant RSV seasons across geographically diverse states.