Analysis of the deterioration rates of liver function in cirrhosis, based on galactose elimination capacity

The prognosis of cirrhotic patients may depend on their liver function, but very few data are available to predict life expectancy in individual subjects on the basis of their liver function tests. The yearly changes in liver function, based on galactose elimination capacity (GEC), were retrospectively analyzed in 76 cirrhotic patients. The first GEC measurement had always been performed at the time of diagnosis. From that time on, mean GEC changes (in mmol/min per year) were +0.13 [SD 0.60] in the 1st year (range: +1.42/-1.35), and -0.03 [0.30] in the 2nd year (P = ns). Only after 36 months could a significant deterioration in liver function be demonstrated, but GEC changes still ranged from +0.14 to -0.35. The trend in liver function was similar in patients with alcoholic and non-alcoholic cirrhosis, but in alcoholics a favourable effect of abstinence was proved. In individual subjects, 2 consecutive GEC measurements, at least 6 months apart, failed to predict the following GEC values. The coefficients of determination between expected and measured GEC or delta GEC were 0.13 and 0.36, respectively (n = 58). When forecasting was limited to 2 years (n = 38), still only 31% and 55% of GEC values and delta GEC variance was predictable on the basis of preceding GEC values. The study shows that no definite trends in liver function deterioration rates can be observed in cirrhosis. This limits the usefulness of liver function tests in predicting prognosis in cirrhotic patients.