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Related Experiment Video

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A Method for Quantifying Foliage-Dwelling Arthropods
08:20

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Published on: October 20, 2019

Exploring tree species colonization potentials using a spatially explicit simulation model: implications for four

Anantha M Prasad1, Judith D Gardiner, Louis R Iverson

  • 1Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Delaware, OH 43015, USA. aprasad@fs.fed.us

Global Change Biology
|March 26, 2013
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Climate change will alter tree habitats. New models show oaks may not colonize suitable northern habitats quickly due to landscape fragmentation and slow migration rates.

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Simulating Impacts of Ice Storms on Forest Ecosystems
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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Climate Change Biology
  • Computational Biology

Background:

  • Climate change alters tree species' suitable habitats, necessitating predictions of future distributions.
  • Previous models (DISTRIB) predicted future suitable habitats for eastern US tree species.
  • Colonization of these new habitats is uncertain due to landscape fragmentation and migration limits.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate tree species' colonization potential in future suitable habitats under climate change.
  • To assess if oaks will dominate northern forests as predicted by habitat models.
  • To demonstrate a modeling approach for screening species' colonization abilities and informing assisted migration.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a spatially explicit cell-based model (SHIFT) to estimate colonization potential.
  • Employed convolution and Fast Fourier Transforms to overcome computational constraints.
  • Integrated SHIFT outputs with future habitat predictions from the DISTRIB model.

Main Results:

  • Even with optimistic scenarios, oaks are predicted to occupy only a small fraction of suitable northern habitats within 100 years.
  • Colonization of suitable oak habitats will likely be concentrated near current range boundaries.
  • The combined modeling approach allows screening of multiple species for climate change-driven colonization potential.

Conclusions:

  • Current landscape fragmentation and migration rates severely limit rapid colonization of newly suitable habitats for species like oaks.
  • Assisted migration may be necessary for vulnerable tree species to reach future suitable habitats.
  • The developed modeling framework provides a tool for assessing climate change impacts on forest dynamics and guiding conservation strategies.