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Updated: May 13, 2026

Rapid In Vivo Assessment of Adjuvant's Cytotoxic T Lymphocytes Generation Capabilities for Vaccine Development

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Published on: June 19, 2018

Risk in vaccine research and development quantified.

Esther S Pronker¹, Tamar C Weenen, Harry Commandeur

¹Vacceleron, Utrecht, The Netherlands. e.s.pronker@gmail.com

|March 26, 2013

Summary

Vaccine development timelines average 10.71 years with a 6% market entry probability. Pandemic influenza vaccines show promise, while acute infectious disease vaccines have lower risk profiles than chronic disease vaccines.

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Area of Science:

Pharmaceutical industry
Vaccinology
Infectious disease research

Background:

The pharmaceutical industry faces a productivity gap, with invested resources not matching product turnover.
Risk profiles (development timelines, transition rates) are established for new chemical entities (NCE) but not well-documented for vaccines.
Understanding vaccine development risks is crucial for addressing infectious diseases.

Purpose of the Study:

To calculate risk profiles for human infectious disease vaccines.
To analyze development timelines and market entry probabilities for vaccines.
To compare vaccine risk profiles across different disease areas and applications.

Main Methods:

Compiled a database of vaccine projects from 1998-2009, covering pre-clinical to market registration phases.
Analyzed development timelines and market entry probabilities.
Stratified data by disease area and vaccine type (prophylactic vs. therapeutic).

Main Results:

The average vaccine development timeline is 10.71 years, with a 6% market entry probability.
Pandemic influenza vaccine targets are identified as lucrative.
Vaccines for acute infectious diseases and prophylactic vaccines exhibit lower risk profiles compared to those for chronic infections or therapeutic applications.

Conclusions:

The study provides key statistics for human infectious disease vaccines.
Further analysis is needed for vaccines targeting cancer, allergies, and autoimmune diseases.
Variables like orphan status, licensing, firm size, and experience require further investigation to fully understand their impact on vaccine risk profiles.