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Violent extremist group ecologies under stress.

Manuel Cebrian1, Manuel R Torres, Ramon Huerta

  • 1Media Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA. manuel.cebrian@nicta.com.au

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Summary

Cybernetic attacks on online extremist forums for terrorism recruitment can backfire. Targeting larger groups more effectively reduces violent output by increasing enforcement costs and decreasing attack effectiveness.

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Published on: September 28, 2018

Area of Science:

  • Cybersecurity
  • Sociology
  • Network Science

Background:

  • Violent extremist groups extensively use internet forums for recruitment.
  • These forums face constant cybernetic attacks from various entities.
  • There's a gap in understanding online extremist recruitment dynamics and control strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a data-driven mathematical model of online extremist forum dynamics.
  • To measure the impact of external attacks on forum self-regulation.
  • To evaluate the effectiveness of different control strategies.

Main Methods:

  • Collected four years of data from ten extremist internet forums.
  • Developed a novel data-driven mathematical model.
  • Analyzed the relationship between external attacks and forum behavior.

Main Results:

  • Increased attacks on extremist forums lead to exponentially higher enforcement costs.
  • The effectiveness of cybernetic attacks decreases exponentially with increased targeting.
  • Attacking larger groups appears to be an efficient strategy for reducing violent output.

Conclusions:

  • External cybernetic attacks can inadvertently incentivize self-regulation in online extremist forums.
  • A strategic policy of occasional attacks on larger forums may be highly efficient.
  • Understanding these dynamics is crucial for effective counter-terrorism efforts.