Herpes zoster and subsequent risk of cancer: a population-based study

In this cohort study, we investigated whether a diagnosis of herpes zoster (HZ) was associated with a higher risk of subsequent cancer as compared with the Taiwanese general population.

Data were obtained from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. In total, 38 743 patients who were aged 50 years or older and had received ambulatory care for HZ between 1997 and 2006 were identified as the study cohort; 116 229 age- and sex-matched patients without HZ were included as the comparison cohort. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) for subsequent cancer, after controlling for potential confounders.

The HR for subsequent cancer varied according to time since HZ diagnosis. The HR was 1.58 (95% CI, 1.38-1.80) within the first year, 1.30 (95% CI, 1.15-1.46) between 1 and 2 years, 1.10 (95% CI, 0.98-1.24) between 2 and 3 years, 1.02 (95% CI, 0.91-1.15) between 3 and 4 years, and 1.08 (95% CI, 0.96-1.21) between 4 and 5 years. The risk of subsequent cancer, particularly lung cancer, was significantly higher during the first 2 years after initial diagnosis of HZ.

Our findings suggest that an HZ diagnosis is a marker of occult malignancy, particularly in lung cancer. The HRs for cancer decreased gradually over time and were no longer significant after 2 years of follow-up, which indicates that the association between HZ and cancer is likely due to detection bias.