Predicting suicide attempts among treatment-seeking male alcoholics: an exploratory study

Documented risk factors for suicide among alcohol-dependent patients are sensitive but insufficiently specific to effectively identify individuals who are prone to future suicide attempt. As a first step to assess factors not previously considered, this pilot study involved a group of male alcohol-dependent patients (N = 175) coming to detoxification to examine the potential utility of adverse childhood experiences (ACE) along with other documented events to discriminate individuals with a history of attempted suicide from their detoxifying peers. Family health history questionnaires were used to evaluate their ACEs. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was applied to examine the predictive power of ACEs, alone or in combination with documented risk factors, to lifetime history of attempted suicide. Among our participants, 48 (27.4%) had a history of a suicide attempt and 156 (89.1%) reported at least one out of the nine categories of ACEs. Modeling by ROC analysis, we found that a cutoff of four or more ACEs plus a history of personal violence achieved the best predictive power to a history of any suicide attempt, producing a sensitivity of 0.7, specificity of 0.81, and area under curve of 0.75. A prospective study to replicate and extend our findings is necessary.