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Peak treadmill running velocity during the VO2 max test predicts running performance
T D Noakes1, K H Myburgh, R Schall
1Department of Physiology, University of Cape Town Medical School, Observatory, South Africa.
Journal of Sports Sciences
|January 1, 1990
Summary
Race performance in distances from 10-90 km is best predicted by previous race times or peak treadmill running velocity. These physiological factors are similar across marathon and ultra-marathon runners, indicating consistent predictors of endurance running success.
Area of Science:
- Sports Science
- Exercise Physiology
- Endurance Running
Background:
- Predicting long-distance running performance is crucial for training optimization.
- Understanding the physiological determinants of success across various race distances (10 km to 90 km) is essential for both athletes and coaches.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the relative predictive value of various physiological and performance variables for running performance in specialist marathon and ultra-marathon runners.
- To identify the key predictors of race performance across a spectrum of long-distance events.
Main Methods:
- Maximal exercise testing was conducted on 20 marathon runners and 23 ultra-marathon runners.
- Key variables measured included maximum oxygen consumption (VO2max), peak treadmill velocity, lactate turnpoint velocity, and VO2 at specific speeds.
- Performance prediction was assessed using race times at shorter distances and laboratory-derived measures.
Main Results:
- Previous race times at 10 km or 21.1 km were the strongest predictors of marathon (42.2 km) and ultra-marathon (42.2 km, 90 km) performance.
- Peak treadmill running velocity emerged as the best laboratory-measured predictor across most distances for both runner groups.
- Running velocity at the lactate turnpoint and %VO2max at 16 km/h also showed significant predictive power, while VO2max and VO2 at 16 km/h were less effective.
Conclusions:
- The physiological factors underpinning success in long-distance running (10-90 km) are consistent across marathon and ultra-marathon specialists.
- Peak treadmill running velocity is a highly reliable laboratory predictor of running performance, comparable to the lactate turnpoint.
- These findings suggest that training adaptations for endurance performance may share common physiological underpinnings across different long-distance race formats.