Projections of costs, financing, and additional resource requirements for low- and lower middle-income country...

The Decade of Vaccines Global Vaccine Action Plan has outlined a set of ambitious goals to broaden the impact and reach of immunization across the globe. A projections exercise has been undertaken to assess the costs, financing availability, and additional resource requirements to achieve these goals through the delivery of vaccines against 19 diseases across 94 low- and middle-income countries for the period 2011-2020. The exercise draws upon data from existing published and unpublished global forecasts, country immunization plans, and costing studies. A combination of an ingredients-based approach and use of approximations based on past spending has been used to generate vaccine and non-vaccine delivery costs for routine programs, as well as supplementary immunization activities (SIAs). Financing projections focused primarily on support from governments and the GAVI Alliance. Cost and financing projections are presented in constant 2010 US dollars (US$). Cumulative total costs for the decade are projected to be US$57.5 billion, with 85% for routine programs and the remaining 15% for SIAs. Delivery costs account for 54% of total cumulative costs, and vaccine costs make up the remainder. A conservative estimate of total financing for immunization programs is projected to be $34.3 billion over the decade, with country governments financing 65%. These projections imply a cumulative funding gap of $23.2 billion. About 57% of the total resources required to close the funding gap are needed just to maintain existing programs and scale up other currently available vaccines (i.e., before adding in the additional costs of vaccines still in development). Efforts to mobilize additional resources, manage program costs, and establish mutual accountability between countries and development partners will all be necessary to ensure the goals of the Decade of Vaccines are achieved. Establishing or building on existing mechanisms to more comprehensively track resources and commitments for immunization will help facilitate these efforts.