Prediction of acute aquatic toxicity in Tetrahymena pyriformis--'Eco-Derek', a knowledge-based system approach

A 'proof-of-concept' version of a software tool for making transparent predictions of acute aquatic toxicity has been developed. It is primarily limited to semi-quantitative predictions in one species, the ciliated protozoan, Tetrahymena pyriformis. A freely available system, 'Eco-Derek', was derived by adapting a well-established, knowledge-based structure-activity and reasoning platform (Derek for Windows, Lhasa Limited). The Derek reasoning code was modified to express potency rather than confidence. Structure-activity relationship (SAR) development utilised a curated version of a published dataset, supplemented with the CADASTER Challenge datasets. Forty-five structural alerts were produced. The dependence on log P was examined for each alert and entered into the system as qualitative reasoning rules specifying the predicted potency as Very Low, Low, Moderate, High or Very High. Evaluation studies showed: (a) moderate accuracy for the training set but low accuracy for an external test set; (b) non-linearity in the toxicity-log P relationship for chemicals without identified structural alerts; (c) insufficient differentiation of substituent effects in some of the reactivity-based structural alerts resulting in too few chemicals predicted with Very High toxicity; and (d) the need for additional structural alerts covering polar narcosis and less common reactive or metabolically activated chemical functionality.