A simple periodic-forced model for dengue fitted to incidence data in Singapore

Dengue is the world's major arbovirosis and therefore an important public health concern in endemic areas. The availability of weekly reports of dengue cases in Singapore offers the opportunity to analyze the transmission dynamics and the impact of vector control strategies. Based on a previous model studying the impact of vector control strategies in Singapore during the 2005 outbreak, a simple vector-host model accounting for seasonal fluctuation in vector density was developed to estimate the parameters governing the vector population dynamics using dengue fever incidence data from August 2003 to December 2007. The impact of vector control, which consisted principally of a systematic removal of actual and potential breeding sites during a six-week period in 2005, was also investigated. Although our approach does not account for the complex life cycle of the vector, the good fit between data and model outputs showed that the impact of seasonality on the transmission dynamics is highly important. Moreover, the periodic fluctuations of the vector population were found in phase with temperature variations, suggesting a strong climate effect on the vector density and, in turn, on the transmission dynamics.