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Modified Most Probable Number Assay to Quantify Salmonella in Raw and Ready-to-Cook Chicken Products
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Optimal Food Safety Sampling Under a Budget Constraint.

Mark R Powell

    Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
    |April 26, 2013
    PubMed
    Summary

    Food safety sampling plans face budget constraints, forcing a tradeoff between testing more lots or more samples per lot. Optimal sampling depends on cost ratios and defect prevalence to maximize rejected nonconforming lots.

    Area of Science:

    • Food safety
    • Microbiology
    • Statistics
    • Economics

    Background:

    • Food safety sampling plans often assume complete lot testing, which is impractical due to budget limitations.
    • A tradeoff exists between the number of lots sampled and the number of samples collected per lot when budgets are constrained.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To present a model illustrating the tradeoff between sampling frequency and sample size per lot in food safety.
    • To determine the optimal number of samples per lot to maximize the rejection of nonconforming lots within a budget.

    Main Methods:

    • Development of a simple model to analyze the relationship between sampling costs, defect prevalence, and optimal sample size.
    • Mathematical modeling to optimize the number of samples per lot under a fixed food safety sampling budget.
    Keywords:
    Food safetysampling plan

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    Main Results:

    • The optimal number of samples per lot is influenced by the prevalence of nonconforming units and the relative costs of lot sampling versus sample unit testing.
    • When the cost per lot is high relative to the cost per sample unit, more samples per lot are optimal as prevalence decreases.
    • Conversely, if the cost per lot is low, simple random sampling (one sample per lot) becomes optimal regardless of prevalence.

    Conclusions:

    • Effective food safety compliance assurance requires balancing statistical and microbiological considerations with economic and practical factors.
    • The cost of laboratory testing significantly impacts the optimal food safety sampling strategy, potentially favoring fewer samples per lot.