Heading for new shores: projecting marine distribution ranges of selected larger foraminifera

The distribution of modern symbiont-bearing larger foraminifera is confined to tropical and subtropical shallow water marine habitats and a narrow range of environmental variables (e.g. temperature). Most of today's taxa are restricted to tropical and subtropical regions (between 30°N and 30°S) and their minimum temperature limits are governed by the 14 to 20°C isotherms. However, during times of extensive global warming (e.g., the Eocene and Miocene), larger foraminifera have been found as far north as 50°N (North America and Central Europe) as well as towards 47°S in New Zealand. During the last century, sea surface temperatures have been rising significantly. This trend is expected to continue and climate change scenarios for 2050 suggest a further increase by 1 to 3°C. We applied Species Distribution Models to assess potential distribution range changes of three taxa of larger foraminifera under current and future climate. The studied foraminifera include Archaias angulatus, Calcarina spp., and Amphistegina spp., and represent taxa with regional, superregional and global distribution patterns. Under present environmental conditions, Amphistegina spp. shows the largest potential distribution, apparently due to its temperature tolerance. Both Archaias angulatus and Calcarina spp. display potential distributions that cover currently uninhabited regions. Under climate conditions expected for the year 2050, all taxa should display latitudinal range expansions between 1 to 2.5 degrees both north- and southward. The modeled range projections suggest that some larger foraminifera may colonize biogeographic regions that so far seemed unsuitable. Archaias angulatus and Calcarina spp. also show an increase in habitat suitability within their native occurrence ranges, suggesting that their tolerance for maximum temperatures has yet not been fully exploited and that they benefit from ocean warming. Our findings suggest an increased role of larger foraminifera as carbonate producers and reef framework builders in future oceans.