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09:02
Monitoring Influenza Virus Survival Outside the Host Using Real-Time Cell Analysis
Published on: February 20, 2021
Predicting hotspots for influenza virus reassortment.
Trevon L Fuller1, Marius Gilbert, Vincent Martin
1Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095-1496, USA. fullertl@ucla.edu
Emerging Infectious Diseases
|May 1, 2013
Summary
Influenza virus reassortment, a cause of pandemics, may occur where human and bird viruses overlap. This study identifies key regions in Asia and Egypt with high potential for reassortment events.
Area of Science:
- Virology
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- Influenza pandemics in 1957 and 1968 resulted from viral reassortment.
- The potential for new pandemics exists due to ongoing reassortment between human and animal influenza viruses.
- Identifying geographic hotspots for reassortment is crucial for pandemic preparedness.
Purpose of the Study:
- To pinpoint geographic locations where agricultural systems facilitate influenza virus reassortment.
- To predict areas with a high likelihood of co-infection and in vivo reassortment between avian (H5N1) and human (H3N2) influenza strains.
Main Methods:
- Multivariate regression models were fitted using surveillance data for influenza A virus subtypes H5N1 (poultry) and H3N2 (humans).
- Models were applied across Asia and Egypt to predict geographic overlap of H5N1 and H3N2.
- Areas with high swine density were incorporated for refined prioritization in Asia.
Main Results:
- Geographic overlap between human H3N2 and avian H5N1 viruses was predicted in specific regions.
- Potential reassortment foci identified include northern India, coastal/central China, western Korean Peninsula, southwestern Japan, and Egypt's Nile Delta.
- High swine density further refined risk areas in Asia.
Conclusions:
- Specific regions in Asia and Egypt present a significant risk for influenza virus reassortment.
- These identified areas require enhanced surveillance and targeted interventions to mitigate pandemic potential.
- Understanding agricultural production systems is key to predicting and preventing future influenza pandemics.
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