Residential long-term care capacity planning: the shortcomings of ratio-based forecasts

This paper uses observations from two British Columbia studies to illustrate the shortcomings of widely used ratio-based approaches for residential long-term care capacity planning. It shows that capacity plans based on a fixed ratio of beds per population over age 75 may result in either excess capacity or long wait times for admission. It then investigates the use of linear regression models to obtain a "best" ratio by relating optimal plans derived by rigorous analytical methods to population characteristics and shows that no single ratio applies broadly. While the use of regression is promising, finding these "best" ratios is too analytically complex for general practice. The paper concludes by providing and evaluating an easy-to-use planning method, which we call the average flow model (AFM). The AFM combines demand forecasts with length-of-stay estimates to produce enhanced capacity plans. The AFM is transparent, easily implemented in a spreadsheet and well suited for "what if?" analyses.