Estimation of ultrafine particle concentrations at near-highway residences using data from local and central monitors

Ultrafine particles (UFP; aerodynamic diameter < 0.1 micrometers) are a ubiquitous exposure in the urban environment and are elevated near highways. Most epidemiological studies of UFP health effects use central site monitoring data, which may misclassify exposure. Our aims were to: (1) examine the relationship between distant and proximate monitoring sites and their ability to predict hourly UFP concentration measured at residences in an urban community with a major interstate highway and; (2) determine if meteorology and proximity to traffic improve explanatory power. Short-term (1 - 3 weeks) residential monitoring of UFP concentration was conducted at 18 homes. Long-term monitoring was conducted at two near-highway monitoring sites and a central site. We created models of outdoor residential UFP concentration based on concentrations at the near-highway site, at the central site, at both sites together and without fixed sites. UFP concentration at residential sites was more highly correlated with those at a near-highway site than a central site. In regression models of each site alone, a 10% increase in UFP concentration at a near-highway site was associated with a 6% (95% CI: 6%, 7%) increase at residences while a 10% increase in UFP concentration at the central site was associated with a 3% (95% CI: 2%, 3%) increase at residences. A model including both sites showed minimal change in the magnitude of the association between the near-highway site and the residences, but the estimated association with UFP concentration at the central site was substantially attenuated. These associations remained after adjustment for other significant predictors of residential UFP concentration, including distance from highway, wind speed, wind direction, highway traffic volume and precipitation. The use of a central site as an estimate of personal exposure for populations near local emissions of traffic-related air pollutants may result in exposure misclassification.