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Predicting shifts in parasite distribution with climate change: a multitrophic level approach
Rob S A Pickles1, Daniel Thornton, Richard Feldman
1Department of Biology, Trent University, Peterborough, ON, Canada. rsapickles@gmail.com
Global Change Biology
|May 14, 2013
Summary
Climate change may favor parasites, but host and parasite life stage distribution shifts can create mismatches. This study models these interactions to predict changes in meningeal worm (Parelaphostrongylus tenuis) parasite distribution.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Parasitology
- Climate Change Biology
Background:
- Climate change is altering environmental conditions, potentially favoring parasite establishment and spread.
- Parasitism impacts are often predicted without considering host distribution variability and its effect on parasite occurrence.
- The meningeal worm (Parelaphostrongylus tenuis) in North American white-tailed deer serves as a model system, involving free-living and gastropod intermediate hosts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate potential distributional shifts of Parelaphostrongylus tenuis under climate change.
- To assess if complex host-parasite interactions lead to increased parasite distribution or ecological mismatches.
- To model the combined distribution of hosts and parasite life stages to refine climate change impact predictions.
Main Methods:
- An ensemble approach to climate modeling was used under two distinct carbon emission scenarios.
- Distribution models were created for the definitive host (white-tailed deer), intermediate host (gastropod), and free-living parasite larva.
- A combined model incorporating projected mismatches in habitat suitability across all life stages was developed.
Main Results:
- While individual species showed increased niche breadth, mismatches were identified between the habitat suitability of the free-living larva and its hosts.
- The combined model projected a decline in overall parasite habitat suitability in the Great Plains and southeastern USA.
- Conversely, habitat suitability for the parasite is projected to increase in the Boreal Forest ecoregion, notably in Alberta.
Conclusions:
- Climate change impacts on parasitism are complex and depend on biotic interactions and the full parasite life cycle.
- Disease risk forecasts that ignore these interactions may be overly simplistic.
- Understanding these shifts is crucial for wildlife conservation and management, especially concerning the pathogenicity of parelaphostrongylosis to alternate hosts like moose, caribou, and elk.
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