Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture

Area of Science:

• Climate change adaptation
• Decision science
• Environmental planning

Background:

• Prioritizing adaptation strategies is crucial for developing countries facing climate change.
• Uncertainty in climate projections complicates long-term adaptation planning.
• Existing frameworks often lack a clear approach to timeframes and uncertainty.

Purpose of the Study:

• To present a novel framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches across diverse timeframes.
• To illustrate the framework's application using case studies from developing countries.
• To analyze the influence of uncertainty and lead time on adaptation strategy selection.

Main Methods:

• Developed a framework for prioritizing adaptation strategies based on timeframes and uncertainty.
• Conducted four case studies in developing countries (Sri Lanka, East Africa, Latin America).
• Utilized stakeholder scenario exercises and crop-climate simulation studies to characterize uncertainty.

Main Results:

• Capacity and impact approaches to adaptation planning vary in utility based on uncertainty and lead time.
• Identified altitudinal thresholds for robust adaptation pathways in coffee cultivation.
• Characterized uncertainty across different time horizons to identify robust adaptation options.
• Predictive impact approaches become more useful with longer lead times and higher greenhouse gas emissions.

Conclusions:

• The framework enables robust knowledge and action in the face of climate change uncertainty.
• Extreme events are critical factors influencing predictability across timescales.
• Adaptation planning must explicitly consider timeframes and uncertainty levels for effective strategy selection.