Ultraviolet-radiation and skin cancer. Effect of an ozone layer depletion

The effect of changes in the ozone layer on the incidence of skin cancer was explored using data for Norway. Attempts were made to arrive at a relationship between the "environmental effective UV-dose" and the skin cancer incidence. Norway is well suited for this purpose because of the large variation in the annual UV-dose from north to south. Furthermore we have a well developed cancer registry and a homogeneous population with regard to skin type. Four different regions of the country, each with a broadness of 1 degree in latitude (approximately 111 km), were selected (located around 69.5, 63.5, 60 and 58.5 degrees N). The annual effective UV-doses for these regions were calculated, assuming normal ozone conditions throughout the year and the action spectrum proposed by CIE, which extends up to 400 nm. The incidence rate (in the period 1970-1980) of malignant melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancer (mainly basal cell carcinoma) increased with the annual environmental UV-doses. For both these types of cancer a quadratic dose-effect relationship seems to be valid to a first approximation. The present data indicate that the incidence of skin cancer would increase by approximately 2% for each percent ozone reduction.