A short note on probability in clinical medicine
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Updated: May 11, 2026

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
1Department of Family and Community Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. ross.upshur@gmail.com
Abstract:
Probability claims are ubiquitous in clinical medicine, yet exactly how clinical events relate to interpretations of probability has been not been well explored. This brief essay examines the major interpretations of probability and how these interpretations may account for the probabilistic nature of clinical events. It is argued that there are significant problems with the unquestioned application of interpretation of probability to clinical events. The essay concludes by suggesting other avenues to understand uncertainty in clinical medicine.
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