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How many people need palliative care? A study developing and comparing methods for population-based estimates
Fliss E M Murtagh1, Claudia Bausewein, Julia Verne
11King's College London, Cicely Saunders Institute, London, UK.
Palliative Medicine
|May 23, 2013
Summary
Estimating palliative care needs is crucial for service planning. Refined methods using death registration data show 69%-82% of deaths require palliative care, improving population-based estimates.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Health Services Research
- Gerontology
Background:
- Effective palliative care service planning requires accurate estimation of population-based need.
- Existing methods for estimating this need vary in approach and data sources.
Purpose of the Study:
- To refine existing population-based methods for estimating palliative care needs.
- To compare these refined methods with existing approaches using a real-world dataset.
Main Methods:
- Expert panel review to refine population-based palliative care need estimation methods.
- Application and comparison of existing and refined methods using linked mortality and hospital episode data from England (2006-2008).
- Consideration of underlying and contributory causes of death and hospital usage patterns.
Main Results:
- Refined methods, incorporating updated International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems-10th Revision (ICD-10) codes and contributory causes, estimated a minimum of 63.03% of deaths needing palliative care.
- Mid-range estimates for palliative care need ranged from 69.10% to 81.87% of all deaths.
- Expert review highlighted changing palliative care practices, non-cancer conditions, and multiple causes of death as key factors.
Conclusions:
- Death registration data, including underlying and contributory causes, provides reliable population-based palliative care need estimates without requiring symptom or hospital activity data.
- In high-income countries, an estimated 69%-82% of individuals who die require palliative care.
- Refined methods offer improved accuracy for public health planning and resource allocation in palliative care services.
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