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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis
Heather E Golden1, Christopher D Knightes, Paul A Conrads
1US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Ecological Exposure Research Division, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA. golden.heather@epa.gov
Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry
|May 25, 2013
Summary
Climate change will alter mercury (Hg) transport in watersheds. Different climate models predict varying impacts on Hg fluxes and concentrations, highlighting the need for multiple models in environmental management.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Science
- Hydrology
Background:
- Climate change significantly impacts hydrological cycles and biogeochemical processes.
- Mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport in watersheds are sensitive to climatic shifts.
- Understanding Hg response to climate change is crucial for environmental risk assessment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the impact of projected climate change on watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport.
- To simulate hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes under contrasting climate scenarios.
- To assess in-stream THg concentrations in response to altered precipitation and temperature.
Main Methods:
- Application of an ensemble of watershed models.
- Utilized downscaled climate projections from two global circulation models (CCSM3 for wet, ECHO for dry conditions).
- Simulations focused on precipitation and temperature effects, keeping atmospheric deposition and land cover constant.
Main Results:
- Projected climate change scenarios indicated a decrease of ~19% (ECHO) and an increase of ~5% (CCSM3) in mean annual watershed THg fluxes.
- In-stream THg concentrations showed a 20% increase with ECHO and a 9% decrease with CCSM3.
- Both models predicted higher monthly THg fluxes during summer due to increased projected flow.
Conclusions:
- Multiple watershed models are essential to capture uncertainties in climate change response projections.
- Single-model predictions for watershed Hg dynamics can be misleading for management decisions.
- Climate change will likely alter Hg export patterns, with seasonal variations influenced by precipitation and flow.
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