Potential oversummering and overwintering regions for the wheat stripe rust pathogen in the contiguous United States

Epidemics of wheat stripe rust, caused by Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici (Pst), are more frequent in the regions where Pst can oversummer and overwinter. Regions for potential oversummering and overwintering of Pst were determined in the contiguous United States using a survival index (SI) ranging from 0 (most unfavorable) to 10 (most favorable) developed based on long-term weather data. The pathogen can survive in cool summer in the most regions north of latitude 40°N, particularly Washington, Idaho, Montana, Oregon and California. Due to limiting high temperatures, it survives marginally during summer in Arkansas, Delaware, Georgia, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island and Texas. Similarly, unfavorable hot summer restricts summer survival of the pathogen in the most regions south of 40°N except for highlands in the Rocky or Appalachian Mountains. Warm winters favor fungal survival in most regions south of 40°N and the Pacific Coast, including Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas and Washington. Severe winters do not allow survival in most regions north of 40°N and east of the Rocky Mountains, whereas less severe winter in Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Utah and Virginia permits marginal survival of Pst. Most wheat-growing regions have climatic suitability for either oversummering or overwintering. Both oversummering and overwintering can occur in the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon and Washington), Arizona, California, North Carolina, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia. These regions may provide primary inoculum for stripe rust epidemics in their own and surrounding regions.