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Related Experiment Video

Updated: May 10, 2026

Modeling the Size Spectrum for Macroinvertebrates and Fishes in Stream Ecosystems
07:41

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Published on: July 30, 2019

Statistical inference for extinction rates based on last sightings.

Miguel Nakamura1, Pablo Del Monte-Luna, Daniel Lluch-Belda

  • 1Área de Probabilidad y Estadística, Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas AC, Col Valenciana, CP 36240 Guanajuato, Gto, México. nakamura@cimat.mx

Journal of Theoretical Biology
|June 5, 2013
PubMed
Summary

Estimating marine extinction rates is challenging due to scarce historical data. This study developed a new model, finding marine extirpations are increasing but global extinction rates remain statistically constant.

Keywords:
ExtirpationsMarine biodiversitySampling effort

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Area of Science:

  • Marine Biology
  • Conservation Science
  • Statistical Ecology

Background:

  • Estimating extinction rates relies on sighting records, often assuming constant rates.
  • Historical sighting data for marine species is notably scarce.
  • The date of the last sighting is frequently the sole data point for inferring extinction.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a probabilistic model and statistical inference procedure for estimating extinction rates from last sighting data.
  • To apply this method to recent marine extirpations and extinctions.
  • To test the hypothesis of a constant extinction rate in marine ecosystems.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a novel probabilistic model based on the date of last sightings.
  • Implementation of a statistical inference procedure linked to the probabilistic model.
  • Application of the model to historical data on marine extirpations and extinctions over the last 500 years.

Main Results:

  • Marine extirpations over the past 500 years show an increasing trend, albeit with considerable uncertainty in the rate.
  • A constant rate for global marine extinctions is statistically plausible based on the analyzed data.
  • High uncertainty due to small sample sizes in marine extinction records leads to varied model outputs fitting the data.

Conclusions:

  • Current trends in marine extinctions are difficult to ascertain definitively due to data limitations.
  • The idiosyncratic nature of marine extinction records complicates robust trend analysis.
  • Further research with improved data collection is needed to resolve uncertainties in marine extinction dynamics.