Participatory scenario development for environmental management: a methodological framework illustrated with...

Area of Science:

• Environmental planning and management
• Social sciences
• Geographic information science

Background:

• Scenario development is crucial for understanding future environmental changes.
• Existing methods often lack comprehensive stakeholder integration and knowledge synthesis.
• Participatory approaches are increasingly recognized for their potential in complex environmental issues.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose and test a methodological framework for participatory scenario development.
• To enhance the relevance, range, and precision of future scenarios.
• To facilitate stakeholder empowerment and adaptation to future environmental change.

Main Methods:

• Literature review to establish a framework for participatory scenario development.
• Systematic identification and representation of stakeholders.
• Selection of participatory methods for scenario construction, evaluation, and decision-making support.
• Integration of local and scientific knowledge throughout the process.
• Case study application in UK uplands.

Main Results:

• The proposed framework effectively guides participatory scenario development.
• Scenarios became more relevant to stakeholder needs and priorities.
• Integration of diverse knowledge sources led to more detailed and precise scenarios.
• The process facilitated a move beyond scenario creation towards adaptation strategies.

Conclusions:

• Participatory scenario development empowers stakeholders and yields more robust outcomes.
• The framework enhances the utility of scenarios for preparing for future environmental changes.
• This approach supports more effective decision-making in complex, uncertain futures.