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On the origin of planetary-scale tipping points
Timothy M Lenton1, Hywel T P Williams
1College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Hatherly Laboratories, Prince of Wales Road, Exeter, Devon, EX4 4PS, UK. t.m.lenton@exeter.ac.uk
Trends in Ecology & Evolution
|June 20, 2013
Summary
The biosphere may experience global tipping points, distinct from local ecosystem shifts. Understanding these planetary-scale dynamics requires incorporating evolutionary processes into tipping point theory.
Area of Science:
- Earth System Science
- Ecology
- Evolutionary Biology
Background:
- Tipping points are critical thresholds in complex systems, observed in ecosystems and climate.
- Previous global tipping points were rare, linked to planetary dynamics, not individual ecosystems.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate whether the entire biosphere can undergo a global tipping point.
- To explore the mechanisms driving potential biosphere-level tipping points.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of past planetary-scale dynamics.
- Review of evolutionary innovations and their impact on global transformations.
- Theoretical exploration beyond bifurcation and network models.
Main Results:
- Global tipping points are rare and involve coupled Earth system dynamics.
- Evolutionary innovations have historically triggered significant global transformations.
- Current tipping point theory may be insufficient to explain biosphere-level shifts.
Conclusions:
- The biosphere as a whole might be capable of tipping.
- Incorporating evolutionary dynamics is crucial for understanding global tipping points.
- Tipping point theory needs expansion to encompass evolutionary mechanisms.
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