Questions regarding the predictive value of one evolved complex adaptive system for a second: exemplified by the SOD1...

Area of Science:

• Complex adaptive systems
• Evolutionary biology
• Philosophy of science

Background:

• Humans and animals are complex adaptive systems shaped by evolution.
• Predicting outcomes from perturbations in such systems is inherently difficult.
• The SOD1 mouse model is frequently used for studying amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the SOD1 mouse model of ALS within the framework of evolved complex adaptive systems.
• To evaluate the predictive value of animal models for human disease and drug development.
• To propose a theoretical explanation for the limitations of animal models.

Main Methods:

• Literature survey encompassing ALS, SOD1 mouse model, complex adaptive systems, evolution, drug development, animal models, and philosophy of science.
• Analysis of the SOD1 mouse model as a case study.
• Presentation of empirical evidence to support the theoretical position.

Main Results:

• Predicting outcomes from perturbations in complex adaptive systems is challenging.
• Using one evolved complex adaptive system (animal model) to predict outcomes in another (humans) is highly problematic, especially for higher-level perturbations.
• Empirical evidence supports the low predictive value of animal models for human diseases and drug responses.

Conclusions:

• The SOD1 mouse model, like other animal models, has limited predictive value for human amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.
• The inherent complexity of evolved systems significantly hinders the extrapolation of findings from animal models to human conditions.
• Rethinking the reliance on animal models for drug development and disease research is warranted.