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Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
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Published on: July 4, 2007

Economic considerations for the eradication endgame.

Scott Barrett1

  • 1School of International and Public Affairs, The Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA. sb3116@columbia.edu

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences
|June 27, 2013
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Achieving global infectious disease eradication requires reaching all communities, but success is uncertain and risks re-emergence. Economic analysis reveals the complex incentives and perils involved in eradication efforts.

Keywords:
cost–benefit analysiseradicationgame theoryglobal public goodsinfectious diseasesweakest links

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Health Economics
  • Game Theory

Background:

  • Infectious disease eradication necessitates universal elimination, including in challenging and vaccine-hesitant populations.
  • Successful eradication offers benefits like reduced infections and vaccinations but carries the risk of resurgence.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To conduct an economic analysis of disease eradication versus optimal control strategies.
  • To identify incentives for achieving and capitalizing on eradication.
  • To explore the 'game' dynamics inherent in international cooperation for eradication.

Main Methods:

  • Economic modeling to evaluate risks and rewards of eradication.
  • Game theory analysis to understand international cooperation and financing incentives.
  • Risk assessment for post-eradication scenarios, including vaccine-derived risks.

Main Results:

  • Eradication is a high-risk, high-reward strategy compared to optimal control.
  • International cooperation and financing present free-rider problems.
  • Continuing vaccination post-eradication poses risks of vaccine-derived diseases.

Conclusions:

  • Disease eradication is a complex endeavor fraught with peril and strategic challenges.
  • Economic and game theory frameworks are crucial for understanding eradication dynamics.
  • Careful consideration of risks, incentives, and international cooperation is vital for successful eradication.