Survey of foodservice production forecasting

Assessment of the state of practice in forecasting production demand in foodservice operations is needed to provide a base for research in model development and implementation. A survey to document the forecasting techniques utilized by foodservice directors was administered to the 464 members of the National Association of College and University Food Services; 282 questionnaires (60.7%) were returned. Fewer than 16% of the respondents used mathematical models for forecasting demand. The moving average technique was the most frequently used mathematical model (8.5%). Variations of the naive or nonmathematical model were used by the majority of respondents. Judgment based on the past records was the most frequently cited variation (89.4%). The foodservice director/manager was the person most frequently responsible for forecasting decisions (83.7%). Typically, determining production demand was conducted 1 week in advance (36.5%). Computers were used by fewer than 38% of respondents for production forecasting. Approximately 79% indicated that forecasting was very important. Respondents indicated a need for improvement in practice and additional training in the area of forecasting. Therefore, continuing education in forecasting should remain a priority for dietetic practitioners.