Predicting chronic obstructive pulmonary disease hospitalizations based on concurrent influenza activity
Alicia K Gerke1, Fan Tang, Ming Yang
11Department of Internal Medicine, University of Iowa , Iowa City, IA , USA.
COPD
|July 4, 2013
Summary
Seasonal influenza significantly increases hospitalizations for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the US. Influenza data accurately predicts COPD admissions, suggesting improved flu prevention can reduce these hospitalizations.
Area of Science:
- Pulmonary Medicine
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations are linked to influenza, but the impact on US healthcare utilization is not well-defined.
- Understanding this association is crucial for public health planning and resource allocation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the association between seasonal influenza incidence and COPD hospitalizations in the United States.
- To evaluate the predictive utility of influenza activity for COPD admissions, particularly during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Nationwide Inpatient Sample data (1998-2010) for primary COPD and influenza diagnoses.
- Employed time series regression models to analyze the relationship between monthly COPD admissions and influenza incidence.
- Applied models to forecast COPD admissions during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.
Main Results:
- A significant association (p < 0.0001) was found between concurrent influenza activity and COPD hospitalizations.
- This association was particularly pronounced in older patients requiring mechanical ventilation.
- Incorporating influenza data reduced prediction error for COPD admissions by 29.9% during the 2009 pandemic.
Conclusions:
- Influenza activity is a significant driver of COPD hospitalizations in the US.
- Influenza surveillance data can enhance the accuracy of COPD admission forecasting.
- Enhanced influenza prevention and treatment strategies may reduce hospitalizations among COPD patients.
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