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Temperature changes between neighboring days and mortality in summer: a distributed lag non-linear time series
Hualiang Lin1, Yonghui Zhang, Yanjun Xu
1Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou, China.
Plos One
|July 5, 2013
Summary
Daily temperature fluctuations significantly impact mortality from non-accidental and cardiovascular diseases. While temperature increases raise mortality risks, decreases offer a protective effect, highlighting the importance of considering daily temperature changes for public health.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Health
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- High temperatures and heat waves are linked to increased mortality and morbidity.
- Limited research exists on the health impacts of daily temperature fluctuations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the association between daily temperature changes and mortality.
- To examine the impact of temperature variations on human health in subtropical urban environments.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a distributed lag non-linear model.
- Analyzed summer mortality data from 2006-2010 in two Chinese cities.
- Defined temperature change as the difference between consecutive daily mean temperatures.
Main Results:
- Observed non-linear effects of daily temperature changes on mortality in both cities.
- Temperature increases correlated with higher mortality from non-accidental and cardiovascular diseases.
- Temperature decreases showed a protective effect on non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality; respiratory mortality association was city-specific.
Conclusions:
- Daily temperature changes are a significant factor in temperature-mortality relationships.
- Temperature variability, not just absolute temperature, should be considered in health assessments.
- Findings suggest temperature change is a valuable indicator for public health interventions.
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