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Quantifying the demand for hip and knee replacement in Otago, New Zealand
1Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Dunedin Public Hospital, Great King Street, Dunedin, New Zealand. david.gwynne-jones@otago.ac.nz
Insights
Demand for hip and knee replacements in Otago is high, with current needs at 798 surgeries annually. This indicates an unmet demand of 73 cases per year, highlighting a gap in provision.
Area of Science:
- Orthopedic surgery
- Public health epidemiology
Background:
- Hip and knee replacement rates vary regionally.
- Understanding local demand is crucial for healthcare planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- Quantify the current demand for hip and knee replacement surgery in Otago, New Zealand.
- Assess the gap between surgical provision and patient need.
Main Methods:
- Utilized hospital databases and the New Zealand Joint Registry.
- Calculated intervention rates for primary total hip (THR) and knee (TKR) replacements from 2010-2012.
- Recorded patients meeting clinical thresholds but awaiting surgery.
Main Results:
- Otago's THR and TKR intervention rates (30.7-42.6/10000) are at or above the national average.
- Current annual demand is estimated at 798 primary joint replacements (41.7/10000 per year).
- An unmet demand of 73 cases per year was identified, with a growing backlog of patients.
Conclusions:
- Otago's higher demand is linked to an aging population (over 55 years).
- Past under-provision relative to demand has contributed to the current backlog.
- Addressing the gap requires increased surgical capacity to meet patient needs.
Aim:
The purpose of this study is to quantify the current demand in Otago for hip and knee replacement.
Methods:
Hospital databases and the New Zealand Joint Registry were used to calculate the intervention rate for primary total hip (THR) or knee (TKR) replacement between February 2010 and February 2012. All patients meeting the clinical threshold but waiting for surgery were also recorded over the same period.
Results:
The intervention rate for THR and TKR in NZ in 2011 was 33.0/10000 while in Otago it has varied from 30.7 to 42.6 over the last 5 years. This is at or above the national average based on population share. Over a 2-year period the numbers reaching the clinical threshold and waiting for primary joint replacement surgery rose from 247 to 347 patients, while 1496 primary elective joints replacements were performed. The current demand for primary THR and TKR is 798 per year (41.7/10000 per year). The unmet demand is 73 cases per year.
Conclusion:
The increased demand in Otago compared to the NZ average is due to greater numbers of people over the age of 55 years and the backlog of patients due to under provision relative to demand in previous years.
