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Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050
Deepak K Ray1, Nathaniel D Mueller, Paul C West
1Institute on the Environment (IonE), University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, Minnesota, United States of America.
Plos One
|July 11, 2013
Summary
Global crop yields for maize, rice, wheat, and soybean are increasing too slowly to meet 2050 demand. Current yield increases are insufficient to double production, requiring significant improvements to ensure food security.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Global Food Security
- Crop Physiology
Background:
- Global population growth and dietary shifts necessitate a doubling of crop production by 2050.
- Increasing agricultural land is unsustainable; boosting crop yields is the preferred strategy.
- Understanding current global yield trends is crucial for future food security.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess global yield trends for major crops (maize, rice, wheat, soybean).
- To determine if current yield increase rates align with the goal of doubling production by 2050.
- To identify regions needing yield improvements to meet future food demands.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of approximately 2.5 million agricultural statistics from over 13,500 political units worldwide.
- Tracking yield changes in maize, rice, wheat, and soybean—crops accounting for two-thirds of global calories.
- Calculating non-compounding annual yield increase rates for each crop.
Main Results:
- Global yield increases for maize, rice, wheat, and soybean are 1.6%, 1.0%, 0.9%, and 1.3% annually, respectively.
- These rates are below the required 2.4% annual increase to double production by 2050.
- Projected production increases (42-67%) fall short of anticipated demand.
Conclusions:
- Current yield improvement trajectories will not meet projected global food demands by 2050.
- Significant interventions are needed to accelerate crop yield increases globally.
- Detailed mapping of yield gaps can guide targeted strategies for boosting production.
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