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When Dread Risks Are More Dreadful than Continuous Risks: Comparing Cumulative Population Losses over Time.

Nicolai Bodemer1, Azzurra Ruggeri, Mirta Galesic

  • 1Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany ; Harding Center for Risk Literacy, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany.

Plos One
|July 11, 2013
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

People fear rare, catastrophic dread risks more than frequent continuous risks. This study shows dread risks have a greater long-term negative impact on population size, especially when affecting younger individuals, suggesting this fear is rational.

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Area of Science:

  • Risk Perception
  • Demography
  • Population Dynamics

Background:

  • Individuals exhibit heightened sensitivity to dread risks (sudden, mass fatalities) versus continuous risks (gradual, mass fatalities).
  • This differential response is often labeled a cognitive bias, as equivalent fatality counts are perceived differently.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate whether dread risks exert a more substantial negative impact on cumulative population size over time compared to continuous risks.
  • To determine if this impact is amplified when dread risks disproportionately affect children and young adults.

Main Methods:

  • A series of simulations were conducted.
  • Variables included population size, growth rates, affected age demographics, and underlying demographic models.

Main Results:

  • Dread risks demonstrated a more severe long-term negative effect on population size than continuous risks with equivalent fatalities.
  • The impact was significantly more pronounced when simulations involved younger age cohorts.

Conclusions:

  • The heightened fear of dread risks is not necessarily a bias but may be an ecologically rational strategy.
  • This strategy accounts for the long-term demographic consequences, particularly the loss of future reproductive potential.