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Infectious disease emergence and global change: thinking systemically in a shrinking world
1National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health College of Medicine Biology and Environment, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. colin.butler@anu.edu.au.
Infectious Diseases of Poverty
|July 16, 2013
Summary
Emerging infectious diseases and pandemics are a growing concern, but focus on novel pathogens is misplaced. Global environmental changes and existing diseases pose greater public health threats.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Intensifying concern exists regarding emerging infectious diseases and global environmental changes as potential drivers of future human pandemics.
- The current focus on novel pathogens may divert attention from more significant public health issues.
Purpose of the Study:
- To critically evaluate the current focus on emerging infectious diseases.
- To identify and prioritize greater public health threats and their underlying determinants.
Main Methods:
- A focused literature review was conducted.
- The review was informed by a forthcoming report on environment, agriculture, and infectious diseases of poverty.
Main Results:
- The perceived threat of newly recognized infections (e.g., zoonotic viruses) and new influenza strains dominates public health concerns.
- Existing infectious diseases and the impact of global environmental changes on public health determinants are insufficiently appreciated.
- The contribution of the broader environment to pandemic disease burden is underestimated.
Conclusions:
- The emphasis on novel pathogens and antimicrobial resistance in emerging disease literature is not justified by their actual or potential disease burden.
- Systemic factors promoting pandemics, particularly adverse global environmental changes, require greater understanding.
- Future pandemics with a high disease burden may arise from antimicrobial/insecticidal resistance, under-nutrition, conflict, and public health breakdown.
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