Late recurrence of localized cutaneous melanoma: its influence on follow-up policy

This paper reports 11 cases of recurrence 10 years or more after primary treatment of clinically local cutaneous melanoma at the Peter MacCallum Cancer Institute. Using the product-limit method for estimating recurrence-free survival, two late recurrence rates have been calculated. The estimated late recurrence rate among all treated patients is 5 percent (95 percent confidence interval: 2 to 8 percent), and the estimated late recurrence rate for the group who survived the first 10 years without recurrence is 7 percent (95 confidence interval: 3 to 11 percent). No prognostic factors were found that could identify a patient subgroup significantly at risk of late recurrence. Recurrence-free survival curves show that most recurrences have presented by the end of 6 years, but later recurrences are seen, the latest in this series being 18.2 years following treatment. While patients probably do not require long-term follow-up in specialist clinics provided they are adequately educated in the nature of their disease, this paper shows the value of long-term statistical surveillance.