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Related Experiment Video

Updated: May 9, 2026

Assessing Intertidal Populations of the Invasive European Green Crab

Assessing Intertidal Populations of the Invasive European Green Crab

Published on: September 16, 2020

The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming.

Anders Levermann¹, Peter U Clark, Ben Marzeion

¹Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany. Anders.levermann@pik-potsdam.de

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

|July 17, 2013

Summary

Global sea level rise is committed, with projections of approximately 2.3 meters per degree Celsius warming within 2,000 years. This necessitates long-term adaptation strategies due to persistent greenhouse gas effects.

Keywords:

climate change climate impacts sea-level change

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Area of Science:

Climate Science
Oceanography
Glaciology

Background:

Global mean sea level has risen over the past century and is projected to continue rising.
Past sea-level records suggest significant contributions from Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets, alongside ocean warming and glacier loss.
Climate and carbon systems exhibit inertia, leading to slow temperature decline even after emissions cease, prompting research into sea-level commitment.

Purpose of the Study:

To estimate future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial timescale.
To compute associated regional sea-level patterns.
To better constrain sea-level commitment by combining paleo-evidence and physical model simulations.

Main Methods:

Combining paleo-evidence with physical model simulations.
Estimating future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial timescale.
Computing regional sea-level patterns.

Main Results:

Ocean thermal expansion contributes 0.4 m/°C warming.
Antarctic Ice Sheet contribution is 1.2 m/°C warming.
Greenland Ice Sheet shows a nonlinear response, overcompensating for glacier melt saturation, leading to a total committed sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m/°C within 2,000 years.

Conclusions:

The Earth is committed to significant sea-level rise due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
Long-term adaptation strategies are essential on multicentennial timescales.
Understanding sea-level commitment is crucial for future climate change mitigation and planning.