A case-based reasoning system for genotypic prediction of HIV-1 co-receptor tropism

Accurate co-receptor tropism (CRT) determination is critical for making treatment decisions in HIV management. We created a genotypic tropism prediction tool by utilizing the case-based reasoning (CBR) technique that attempts to solve new problems through applying the solution from similar past problems. V3 loop sequences from 732 clinical samples with diverse characteristics were used to build a case library. Additional sequence and molecular properties of the V3 loop were examined and used for similarity assessment. A similarity metric was defined based on each attribute's frequency in the CXCR4-using viruses. We implemented three other genotype-based tropism predictors, support vector machines (SVM), position specific scoring matrices (PSSM), and the 11/25 rule, and evaluated their performance as the ability to predict CRT compared to Monogram's enhanced sensitivity Trofile(®) assay (ESTA). Overall concordance of the CBR based tropism prediction algorithm was 81%, as compared to ESTA. Sensitivity to detect CXCR4 usage was 90% and specificity was at 73%. In comparison, sensitivity of the SVM, PSSM, and the 11/25 rule were 85%, 81%, and 36% respectively while achieving a specificity of 90% by SVM, 75% by PSSM, and 97% by the 11/25 rule. When we evaluated these predictors in an unseen dataset, higher sensitivity was achieved by the CBR algorithm (87%), compared to SVM (82%), PSSM (76%), and the 11/25 rule (33%), while maintaining similar level of specificity. Overall this study suggests that CBR can be utilized as a genotypic tropism prediction tool, and can achieve improved performance in independent datasets compared to model or rule based methods.