Forecasting large aftershocks within one day after the main shock.

Area of Science:

• Earthquake Science
• Seismology
• Disaster Risk Reduction

Background:

• Accurate aftershock forecasting is crucial for disaster management.
• Operational forecasting is challenged by incomplete early aftershock data.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a real-time method for forecasting aftershock occurrence rates.
• To utilize systematically incomplete observational data available hours after main shocks.

Main Methods:

• Proposing a novel real-time forecasting technique.
• Applying the method to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake aftershocks.
• Comparing real-time data forecasts with compiled preliminary data.

Main Results:

• The method efficiently forecasts aftershock rates using incomplete early observations.
• Demonstrated utility through retrospective forecasting of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake.
• Examined method robustness using data from a recent inland Japanese earthquake.

Conclusions:

• The proposed real-time method enhances operational aftershock forecasting capabilities.
• This approach aids in timely hazard mitigation following major seismic events.