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Closure of a Patent Foramen Ovale (PFO): An Intervention Sequence
Published on: December 23, 2022
An index to identify stroke-related vs incidental patent foramen ovale in cryptogenic stroke
David M Kent1, Robin Ruthazer, Christian Weimar
1Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies, Tufts Medical Center/Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA. Dkent1@tuftsmedicalcenter.org
Insights
A new Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score helps stratify cryptogenic stroke (CS) patients with patent foramen ovale (PFO). Higher scores indicate a greater likelihood of stroke being PFO-related and a lower risk of recurrence.
Area of Science:
- Neurology
- Cardiology
- Stroke Medicine
Background:
- Cryptogenic stroke (CS) is a stroke of unknown origin.
- Patent foramen ovale (PFO) is a common cardiac finding in CS patients, but its causal role is debated.
- Stratifying CS patients with PFO is crucial for determining stroke etiology and guiding treatment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate an index to stratify CS patients with PFO based on the likelihood of PFO being the cause of stroke.
- To estimate PFO-attributable stroke fractions and recurrence rates across different risk strata.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from 12 studies involving CS patients with PFO.
- Employed generalized linear mixed models to identify predictors of PFO in CS.
- Derived a 10-point Risk of Paradoxical Embolism (RoPE) score based on clinical and imaging variables.
Main Results:
- Key predictors for PFO in CS included younger age, cortical stroke, and absence of diabetes, hypertension, smoking, and prior stroke/TIA.
- PFO prevalence increased from 23% in low-RoPE score groups to 73% in high-RoPE score groups.
- Estimated PFO-attributable stroke fractions ranged from approximately 0% to 90%.
- Two-year stroke/TIA recurrence rates decreased from 20% in the lowest RoPE score stratum to 2% in the highest.
Conclusions:
- Clinical characteristics effectively stratify CS patients with PFO by the probability of stroke being PFO-related.
- The RoPE score identifies patients with a higher likelihood of PFO-related stroke.
- Patients with higher RoPE scores, indicating a more likely PFO-related stroke, exhibit a lower risk of recurrent stroke.
Objective:
We aimed to create an index to stratify cryptogenic stroke (CS) patients with patent foramen ovale (PFO) by their likelihood that the stroke was related to their PFO.
Methods:
Using data from 12 component studies, we used generalized linear mixed models to predict the presence of PFO among patients with CS, and derive a simple index to stratify patients with CS. We estimated the stratum-specific PFO-attributable fraction and stratum-specific stroke/TIA recurrence rates.
Results:
Variables associated with a PFO in CS patients included younger age, the presence of a cortical stroke on neuroimaging, and the absence of these factors: diabetes, hypertension, smoking, and prior stroke or TIA. The 10-point Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score is calculated from these variables so that the youngest patients with superficial strokes and without vascular risk factors have the highest score. PFO prevalence increased from 23% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 19%-26%) in those with 0 to 3 points to 73% (95% CI: 66%-79%) in those with 9 or 10 points, corresponding to attributable fraction estimates of approximately 0% to 90%. Kaplan-Meier estimated stroke/TIA 2-year recurrence rates decreased from 20% (95% CI: 12%-28%) in the lowest Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score stratum to 2% (95% CI: 0%-4%) in the highest.
Conclusion:
Clinical characteristics identify CS patients who vary markedly in PFO prevalence, reflecting clinically important variation in the probability that a discovered PFO is likely to be stroke-related vs incidental. Patients in strata more likely to have stroke-related PFOs have lower recurrence risk.
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